Pie Business Plan, With a Projection Built Around November

A pie business plan sets out the pies you'll bake and who buys them, what a pie costs and sells for, the kitchen and the rules, and the year month by month, which for pies means a year built around one week. Thanksgiving preorders can be more pies in a few days than the whole of a quiet month, so the plan is really two plans: a steady trade in fruit pies and hand pies at markets and online, and a November that's planned from the preorders back. In the example below, a baker in Kingston, New York, sells fruit, pumpkin and pecan pies and hand pies from a commercial kitchen, makes a profit every month, earns almost 40% of the year's profit in November, and ends the year about $20,500 ahead on $70,900 of sales, after paying $20 an hour for the baking. Below is a description example, each part of the plan, the cottage food line, the year, the startup budget, and a free template.

The short version

• Describe the business in a paragraph: the pies, where you sell, the kitchen, the goals.
• Cost a pie with your time in it: crust, filling, box, oven, card fees.
• Price fruit, pumpkin and pecan separately; pecans make pecan pie the dearest to fill.
• Take Thanksgiving preorders with a deadline and a deposit, and bake to the list.
• Pumpkin, custard and cream pies need refrigeration, which generally puts them outside cottage food rules.
• Plan the year around November: cash from the holidays carries January.
• TaroStack turns the preorders into what to bake and buy. More below.

Part 1: the business description

Orchard Hill Pie Co., a made-up pie baker in Kingston, New York, I use in these examples, writes:

Orchard Hill Pie Co. bakes fruit pies from Hudson Valley apples, cherries and blueberries, pumpkin and pecan pies, and hand pies, in a licensed commercial kitchen, sold at two farmers markets, by online preorder for pickup, and by Thanksgiving and holiday preorder. In our first year we plan to fill 500 Thanksgiving orders.

Part 2: what a pie costs

The pecan filling is $3.60 of pecans, four-tenths of a pound, plus eggs, butter, sugar and syrup, so it costs more than a fruit filling. The time is a batch's worth divided by the pies: rolling crusts, filling, crimping, baking, cooling and boxing. How to cost a bake with your time in it is in how to price baked goods.

Part 3: customers and prices

The pumpkin pie is the cheapest to make and leaves almost as much as a fruit pie, which is why it's on every Thanksgiving table and every preorder list. Hand pies are the market's everyday seller, $5 to eat on the spot. A café or grocer that wants whole pies needs a wholesale price; how to set one is in how to price baked goods for wholesale.

Part 4: Thanksgiving and the cottage food line

Thanksgiving is planned from the preorders back. The form closes a week ahead, takes a deposit, and gives each order a pickup slot; the list says how many crusts to roll each day, how much butter, flour, pumpkin and pecans to buy, and how many boxes. Crusts can be made and frozen in October. On the days themselves the baking runs in shifts, and the $20 an hour in each pie's cost pays the extra hands.

Fruit pies are the kind of baked good that state cottage food laws generally allow to be made at home and sold directly to customers. Pumpkin, custard and cream pies need refrigeration, which generally puts them outside cottage food rules, so a plan that sells pumpkin pie at Thanksgiving uses a licensed commercial kitchen, as this one does. How cottage food rules work is in how to start a cottage food business. This is general information, not legal advice.

Part 5: the year, month by month

Fixed costs are $1,385 a month: commercial kitchen time, averaged over the year ($900), insurance ($60), market fees ($150), the website and preorders ($40), software and card fees ($35), marketing ($100), and a share of the delivery van ($100). Month 1 is September; November is full speed, and the rest of the year runs at 15% to 60% of it:

The year's sales are $70,904 and the profit $20,457, on top of $20 an hour for the baking. November alone is $7,870 of it, and December another $4,168; January barely breaks even. How to plan stock for a season like this is in seasonal inventory.

Part 6: the startup budget

Get the template

Download the pie business plan workbook. Four sheets: your pies with price, variable cost and volume at full speed; the year, month by month, with sales, profit and cash, and month 1 set to September; your fixed costs; and your startup budget with working cash. Change each month's share to match your year. It's an ordinary Excel file with no macros, and it works in Google Sheets, LibreOffice and Numbers.

Where this stops working

Eight pies, 500 Thanksgiving preorders in three pickup days, butter and pecans bought by the case at prices that jump in the fall, frozen crusts made ahead, and the markets still running. A sheet can't turn 500 orders into how many crusts to roll on Tuesday and how much butter to buy, or say what a pecan pie costs now that pecans have gone up.

How TaroStack does it

TaroStack turns the preorders into what to bake and buy.

Preorders as sales orders. Each Thanksgiving order is a sales order for its pickup day, so the list of what's owed, by pie and by day, is always current.

Pies and crusts as recipes. Each pie is a recipe, and the crust is a sub-recipe of its own, with units that convert: butter bought by the case, used by the gram. TaroStack's planning turns the orders into what to make and what to buy, and when, as drafts you approve, and recording a batch takes the butter, flour and pecans off stock at what you paid.

And what each pie earns. Frozen crusts are stock with their date, the reorder list works in days of cover against each supplier's lead time, a price-creep report shows whose prices are rising, and margins are reported by product and by customer.

Recipes, batches and sales orders are on every plan, from $49 a month, and planning is on Standard at $99. The first 30 days are free, with no credit card. If you'd like a hand setting up, ask, and we'll do it with you.

Questions people also ask

Is a pie business profitable?

It can be. In the example, a baker selling fruit, pumpkin and pecan pies and hand pies ends the first year about $20,500 ahead on $70,900 of sales, with $20 an hour paid for the baking, and November is the best month by far.

How much does it cost to make a pie to sell?

In the example, a 9-inch fruit pie is $5.40 of crust and filling and $14.11 with the box, 20 minutes of time, the oven and card fees.

How much should I sell a homemade pie for?

Cost it with your time, then price for your margin. In the example, fruit pies sell for $28, pumpkin for $24 and pecan for $32.

Can I sell pumpkin pie from home?

Pumpkin pie needs refrigeration, which generally puts it outside state cottage food laws, so it's usually made in a licensed kitchen. Fruit pies are generally allowed under cottage food rules. Check your state.