Seasonal inventory is stock you hold because of the calendar rather than this week's orders. For a maker it comes in two kinds: finished products built up ahead of a peak you can't make fast enough to meet, like candles before December, and seasonal ingredients bought while they're available to use all year, like fruit at harvest. Both trade cash and shelf space now for sales later, so the questions are the same: how much, when to start, and what it ties up. In the example below, a candle maker who can pour 300 candles a month and expects to sell 400 in November and 480 in December has to start building in August; starting in September leaves December 100 candles short. At its highest, in October, the stock built for the season holds $1,642 of materials and labor. Below are both kinds with examples, how to plan the build, the cash, and a free planner.
The short version
- Seasonal inventory is stock held for a season: built ahead of a peak, or bought while an ingredient is in season.
- Build ahead when the peak's sales are more than you can make in the peak months.
- Work backward from the peak: what you can make each month, what sells, and when the stock must start building.
- Watch the money tied up at the highest point, usually the month before the peak.
- Seasonal ingredients need a year's forecast, storage, and dates you can keep to.
- Last year's sales by month are the best guide to this year's.
- TaroStack forecasts from your own history and plans what to make against your capacity, on Standard. More below.
Two kinds of seasonal inventory
| Kind | Example | The question |
|---|---|---|
| Built ahead of a peak | Candles for December, fudge for Valentine's Day | When to start, so the peak isn't short |
| Bought in season, used all year | Lilikoi bought at harvest for a year of lilikoi butter | How much, and where to keep it |
Some products can't be built far ahead because they don't keep: fudge with a few weeks of shelf life has to be made in the month it's sold, so its peak is a question of hours, not stock. How that plays out is in candy business plan.
Building ahead of a peak
Lehua Glow, a made-up candle maker I use in these examples, can pour 300 candles a month. Its sales follow the gift calendar, with figures from its candle business plan:
| Month | Expected sales | Make | Stock at month end | Money tied up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June | 120 | 120 | 0 | $0 |
| July | 120 | 120 | 0 | $0 |
| August | 140 | 300 | 160 | $773 |
| September | 180 | 300 | 280 | $1,352 |
| October | 240 | 300 | 340 | $1,642 |
| November | 400 | 300 | 240 | $1,159 |
| December | 480 | 300 | 60 | $290 |
| January | 120 | 60 | 0 | $0 |
From August, the pouring runs at full capacity and the extra builds up, peaking at 340 candles in October, then November and December draw it down. Each candle costs $4.83 to make, materials and labor averaged across jars and tins, so the highest point holds $1,642. Start a month later, in September, and the stock reaches only 180 by the end of October, 80 by the end of November, and December comes up 100 candles short, the month that matters most.
The rule underneath: add up how much the peak months need beyond what you can make in them, and start early enough that the months before can make the difference. How a kitchen's capacity is worked out is in how to calculate production capacity.
Buying an ingredient in season
The other kind runs the opposite way. Lilikoi ripens in late summer and autumn, and Windward Roots' lilikoi butter sells all year: about 64 jars a month, using 19 kg of fruit. Buying a year's worth in season means about 228 kg of lilikoi, $570 at $2.50 a kilogram, plus the hours to turn it into frozen purée, freezer space for all of it, and a date on every lot so the oldest is used first. The questions are a forecast you trust for the year, storage you have, and a shelf life the stored form will keep. How to keep lots and dates in order is in stock rotation methods.
The cash, and the risk
Seasonal inventory is money spent before the season pays it back. At its highest, the candle build holds $1,642; the lilikoi purée holds $570 of fruit and its labor on the first day. Two risks come with it: the season sells less than planned, and stock sits until next year; or it sells more, and you can't make more in time. Last year's month-by-month sales, adjusted for what you know has changed, are the best protection against both. What slow stock costs is in obsolete inventory examples.
Get the planner
Download the seasonal build planner. Type what you expect to sell each month, what you can make in a month, the month to start building and the month the peak ends; it shows what to make, the stock at each month's end, any month that comes up short, and the money tied up. It's an ordinary Excel file with no macros, and it works in Google Sheets, LibreOffice and Numbers.
Where this stops working
The planner handles one product and a guess at its sales. A real season has fourteen scents in two sizes, a forecast that should come from last year's sales by product and month, glass ordered weeks ahead, and wholesale orders landing in September and October. Which scents to pour first, and whether the build is on track, aren't questions one spreadsheet answers.
How TaroStack does it
TaroStack keeps every product's history, so the season starts from your own numbers.
Forecasts from your history, on Standard. Planning fills forecasts from your own sales history and works out what to make and what to buy, and when, against work centers' hours, so a week's plan doesn't promise more than the kitchen can pour. Every suggestion is a draft you approve.
Ingredients bought ahead, kept in date. Every lot carries its dates, stock goes out first-expired-first-out, and a forecast shows what will expire unsold and what it's worth, so a season's purée is used before its date. The reorder list shows supplies in days of cover against suppliers' real lead times, so the glass for November is ordered in time.
And the season, measured. Batches are costed from what you paid, so the money in the build is known, and margins by product show which scents earned their place. Stock that isn't moving shows how long since it last went out.
| The job | Spreadsheet | In TaroStack |
|---|---|---|
| How much will December sell? | Last year's notebook | Forecasts from your history, on Standard |
| What to pour this week | A guess | Planning against capacity, on Standard |
| A season of purée, in date | Labels on bags | Lots with dates, first-expired-first-out |
| What's tied up in the build | Unknown | Stock value, at what you paid |
Lots, batches, costs and the reorder list are on every plan, from $49 a month; planning, with forecasts and capacity, is on Standard at $99. The first 30 days are free, with no credit card. If you'd like a hand setting up, ask, and we'll do it with you.