A popcorn business plan sets out what you'll pop and where you'll sell it, what a bag costs and sells for, the permits for popping in public and selling from home, and the first year month by month. Popcorn has two businesses inside it. Kettle corn is an event business: a popper, a tent, two people and a crowd, with the money made in a few long days. Caramel corn and gift tins are a kitchen business: made ahead, bagged, labeled and sold online, at markets and to shops. A plan that keeps the two apart shows where the profit really comes from. In the example below, a popcorn maker in Ohio sells about 900 bags of kettle corn a month at peak, plus caramel corn and tins, and ends the first year about $48,000 ahead on sales of $107,000, after paying $20 an hour for every hour of popping. Below is a description example, each part of the plan, the event day, the projection, the startup budget, and a free template.
The short version
- Describe the business in a paragraph: the products, where you sell, the kitchen, the goals.
- Cost a bag with your time in it: kernels, sugar and oil are cheap; the hours aren't.
- Price kettle corn for events, caramel corn for direct and wholesale, and tins for gifts.
- Check two sets of rules: popping at events, and bagging at home or in a kitchen.
- Plan the event calendar first; it sets the busy months.
- Budget for the popper, the tent and a season's worth of bags before the first event.
- TaroStack keeps recipes, batches, lots and an event-day count that works with no signal. More below.
Part 1: the business description
Copper Kettle Popcorn, a made-up popcorn maker I use in these examples, writes:
Copper Kettle Popcorn pops kettle corn fresh at fairs, festivals and farmers markets around Columbus, Ohio, and makes caramel corn and gift tins in a licensed kitchen for our online shop, local stores and corporate gifts. Every bag carries a best-by date and a lot code. In our first year we plan to work eight events a month in season and sell to 12 shops.
Part 2: what a bag costs
| Per bag or tin | Kettle corn, at events | Caramel corn, direct | Caramel corn, wholesale | Gift tin, 1 gallon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingredients | $0.73 | $1.55 | $1.55 | $2.90 |
| Bag, tin, labels | $0.25 | $0.60 | $0.60 | $5.80 |
| Card fee, 3% | $0.24 | $0.27 | $0.84 | |
| Case and delivery share | $0.12 | |||
| Your time, at $20 an hour | $2.13 | $1.33 | $1.33 | $2.96 |
| Variable cost | $3.35 | $3.75 | $3.60 | $12.50 |
Kettle corn's time is the event: two people, about six hours, selling about 112 bags, comes to $2.13 a bag. Caramel corn's is a kitchen batch of 30 bags in two hours. The ingredients are cheap in both; the hours are most of the cost. How labor goes into a unit cost is in how to compute labor cost in baking.
Part 3: customers and prices
| Product | Price | Variable cost | Contribution | Margin | A month at full speed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kettle corn, large bag, at events | $8.00 | $3.35 | $4.65 | 58.1% | 900 |
| Caramel corn, 8 oz bag, direct | $9.00 | $3.75 | $5.25 | 58.3% | 300 |
| Caramel corn, 8 oz bag, wholesale | $5.25 | $3.60 | $1.65 | 31.4% | 240 |
| Gift tin, 1 gallon, online and corporate | $28.00 | $12.50 | $15.50 | 55.4% | 60 |
Wholesale caramel corn leaves $1.65 a bag, a third of a direct bag, so shops are for steady volume between events and for reaching people who never come to a fair. How a wholesale price is set from full cost is in how to price handmade items for wholesale.
Part 4: permits and labels
Two sets of rules apply. Popping at an event is food service, licensed by the health department where the event happens, often as a temporary or mobile food license, and events ask for your license and insurance before they give you a spot. Bagged caramel corn made at home may be allowed under your state's cottage food law, with limits on where you sell and what the label says; made in a licensed kitchen, it can go to shops and online. Check both before the first event; how cottage food rules work is in how to start a cottage food business. Every bag needs the product name, ingredients, allergens such as milk in caramel, net weight, and your name and address. This is general information, not legal advice.
Part 5: the first year, month by month
Fixed costs are $930 a month: event and market fees averaged over the year ($600), propane ($60), the vehicle and trailer ($150), insurance ($50), the website ($30), and software and card fees ($40). The year runs January to December, with events peaking in summer and gift orders in December:
| Month | Kettle corn | Caramel, direct | Caramel, wholesale | Gift tins | Sales | Profit | Cash, year to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 225 | 75 | 60 | 15 | $3,210 | $842 | $842 |
| Feb | 225 | 75 | 60 | 15 | $3,210 | $842 | $1,683 |
| Mar | 315 | 105 | 84 | 21 | $4,494 | $1,550 | $3,233 |
| Apr | 450 | 150 | 120 | 30 | $6,420 | $2,613 | $5,846 |
| May | 630 | 210 | 168 | 42 | $8,988 | $4,030 | $9,876 |
| Jun | 810 | 270 | 216 | 54 | $11,556 | $5,447 | $15,324 |
| Jul | 900 | 300 | 240 | 60 | $12,840 | $6,156 | $21,480 |
| Aug | 900 | 300 | 240 | 60 | $12,840 | $6,156 | $27,636 |
| Sep | 810 | 270 | 216 | 54 | $11,556 | $5,447 | $33,083 |
| Oct | 630 | 210 | 168 | 42 | $8,988 | $4,030 | $37,113 |
| Nov | 720 | 240 | 192 | 48 | $10,272 | $4,739 | $41,852 |
| Dec | 900 | 300 | 240 | 60 | $12,840 | $6,156 | $48,008 |
The year's sales are $107,214 and the profit $48,008, on top of $20 an hour for the work. Every month makes a profit, because the costs that don't move with sales are small; the risk is a wet summer, not cash. The template lets you set each month's share of full speed to your own event calendar.
Part 6: the event day
An event is where the year is made or lost, so plan it like a batch:
| One event day | Example |
|---|---|
| Bags sold | 112 |
| Sales at $8 | $896 |
| Kernels, sugar, oil and bags | $110 |
| Card fees | $27 |
| Two people, six hours, at $20 | $240 |
| The event's fee | $75 |
| Left for the business | $444 |
The popper sets the ceiling: a large kettle makes a batch every few minutes, so a busy event is limited by the line and the people, not the kettle. Bring more bags than the forecast, and count what comes home so the next forecast is better; how to plan the quantity is in how much inventory to bring to a craft fair.
Part 7: the startup budget
| Item | Example |
|---|---|
| Kettle corn popper and burner | $2,800 |
| Caramel kettle, pans and cooling tables | $400 |
| Sifting tub and tables | $300 |
| Tent, weights and signs | $450 |
| Propane tanks and regulator | $200 |
| Bags, labels and tins, first order | $900 |
| First kernels, sugar and oil | $250 |
| Temporary food permits and license | $300 |
| Product liability insurance, first year | $600 |
| Working cash | $2,500 |
| Total to start | $8,700 |
The equipment prices are examples; get your own quotes. What a market stall costs over a season is in cost to sell at a farmers market.
Get the template
Download the popcorn business plan workbook. Four sheets: your products with price, variable cost and monthly volume at full speed; the year, month by month, with sales, profit and cash, and a row to set each month's share of full speed to your own event calendar; your fixed costs; and your startup budget with working cash. It's an ordinary Excel file with no macros, and it works in Google Sheets, LibreOffice and Numbers.
Where this stops working
The plan is made in January. By July the business is running on a phone at a fairground: how many bags went out, how much caramel corn is left at home, which shop is due a delivery, and whether the caramel corn on the shelf is still inside its date. Bags are counted on paper in the dark at the end of a long day, and the numbers never quite make it back into the spreadsheet.
How TaroStack does it
TaroStack keeps the kitchen and the events in one place.
Recipes and batches. Each product is a recipe with versions, the caramel a sub-recipe of the caramel corn, and units convert: kernels by the 50 lb bag, used by the pound. Recording a batch takes ingredients and bags off stock from the lots used, at what you paid, and divides by the bags that came out good, so you know what a bag really costs this month.
The event as a site. A market stall is a kind of site, so the event's stock is its own, moved there and counted back. Counting works with no signal, at the fairground or the back of the trailer, and sends itself later.
And dates and lots on every bag. Every batch goes into a lot with its best-by date, lot labels print with both, and lots close to their date show in your alerts. Margins are reported by product and by customer, so the shops that pay their way are visible.
| The job | Notebook | In TaroStack |
|---|---|---|
| What does a bag cost now? | Set in January | Every batch, at what you paid |
| What went to the fair, and what came back? | Counted in the dark | Moved to the stall, counted back, no signal needed |
| Which caramel corn is near its date? | Read the bags | Expiry alerts |
| Which shops pay their way? | A feeling | Margins by customer |
Recipes, batches, lots, counting and margins by product and customer are on every plan, from $49 a month; the event stall as its own site, beside the kitchen, is on Standard at $99. The first 30 days are free, with no credit card. If you'd like a hand setting up, ask, and we'll do it with you.