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Pastry Shop Business Plan, With a First-Year Projection

A pastry shop business plan: what a croissant, tart and entremet cost, viennoiserie, cakes to order and wholesale by $100 of sales, wages, a first year.

By Koa Sterling. Product specialist at TaroStack and small business owner. Yes, I am a real human, and I actually sit in front of a computer and write these articles. Reviewed October 19, 2026 · 6 min read

A pastry shop sells skill by the piece: laminated croissants and pain au chocolat in the morning, fruit tarts and éclairs in the case, entremets and celebration cakes to order. The butter and chocolate are the ingredient cost; the hours of lamination, shaping and finishing are the real cost, and pastry that isn't sold by close is lost. The plan turns on pastry chefs' wages, the sheeter, deck oven and refrigeration that lamination needs, and a small shop with a case, plus wholesale croissants to cafés that use the ovens early. In the example, a Richmond pastry shop starts with $199,400, ends its first year about $31,600 behind before the owner's pay while sales build, and makes about $2,700 a month at full speed. Below is each part of the plan, the first year month by month, the startup budget, and a free template.

The short version

  • Describe the shop in a paragraph: the street, the customers, what's missing nearby, the goals.
  • Cost each pastry: butter, flour, chocolate and fruit by weight, the box, the card fee.
  • Plan sales by category per $100: viennoiserie, pastries, cakes to order, wholesale and coffee.
  • Pastry chefs' wages are the biggest cost.
  • Bake to what sells; laminated dough left at close is butter thrown away.
  • Budget working cash for a slow first half year, and check it against the lowest cash point.
  • TaroStack makes each pastry a recipe, so its true cost follows the price of what's in it. More below.

Part 1: the business description

Maison Lumière Pâtisserie, a made-up pastry shop in Richmond, Virginia, writes:

Maison Lumière Pâtisserie is a 1,000-square-foot French pastry shop with a case and a few tables, baking croissants and viennoiserie each morning, tarts, éclairs and entremets, celebration cakes to order, and wholesale croissants for three cafés. In its first year it aims to reach $36,000 of sales a month.

Part 2: what a pastry costs

Pastry Butter and flour Filling or finish Box or bag Card fee Cost Price Cost share
Butter croissant $0.48 $0.05 $0.14 $0.67 $4.75 14.1%
Fruit tart, individual $0.55 $1.35 $0.20 $0.27 $2.37 $9.00 26.3%

European-style butter is most of a croissant's ingredient cost. The category costs in Part 4 carry the pastry left at close and the hours are fixed wages. A café that bakes and sells coffee is in bakery cafe business plan.

Part 3: customers and staffing

Two pastry chefs start at 4 a.m.; the case opens at 7. Croissants sell out by 11 on weekends; tarts and éclairs carry the afternoon. Celebration cakes are ordered three days ahead. Wholesale croissants leave at 6:30.

Part 4: what each category earns

Category Sales Variable cost Contribution Margin Hundreds a month at full speed
Viennoiserie $100.00 $22.00 $78.00 78% 110
Tarts, éclairs and pastries $100.00 $30.00 $70.00 70% 100
Cakes and entremets to order $100.00 $28.00 $72.00 72% 70
Wholesale croissants $100.00 $38.00 $62.00 62% 40
Coffee and drinks $100.00 $27.00 $73.00 73% 40

At full speed the business sells $36,000 a month and keeps $26,020, 72.3%; tarts, éclairs and pastries bring $8,580 of it.

Part 5: the first year, month by month

Fixed costs are $23,300 every month: rent ($4,200), wages ($16,500), utilities ($1,100), insurance ($300), register and software ($200), ads ($400), and other costs ($600). Sales start at half of full speed:

Month Sales Profit Cash, year to date
1 $18,000 −$10,290 −$10,290
2 $20,100 −$8,766 −$19,056
3 $22,300 −$7,185 −$26,241
4 $24,500 −$5,589 −$31,830
5 $26,700 −$4,008 −$35,838
6 $28,800 −$2,484 −$38,322
7 $30,700 −$1,108 −$39,430
8 $32,100 −$102 −$39,532
9 $33,400 $841 −$38,691
10 $34,500 $1,642 −$37,049
11 $36,000 $2,720 −$34,329
12 $36,000 $2,720 −$31,609

The year's sales are $343,100, and the business ends it $31,609 behind, before the owner's pay. It breaks even at about $32,240 of sales a month, in the ninth month. The lowest cash point, −$39,532 in month 8, is covered by the $45,000 of working cash with about $5,500 to spare. Wages are two-thirds of the fixed costs; the wholesale croissants, baked before the shop opens, are the sales that use the pastry chefs' hours best.

Part 6: the startup budget

Item Example
Build-out and signs $60,000
Deck oven $26,000
Dough sheeter $12,000
Refrigeration and blast chiller $18,000
Display case $9,000
Mixers and smallwares $9,000
Lease deposit and first month $8,400
Furniture $5,000
Opening inventory $3,500
Register $2,000
Licenses and permits $1,500
Working cash $45,000
Total to start $199,400

The $154,400 before working cash is earned back in about four and a half years at full speed. Pricing celebration cakes is in how to price wedding cakes, and the bakery license in bakery license.

Get the template

Download the pastry shop business plan workbook. Four sheets: your categories, each per $100 of sales with its variable cost and hundreds a month at full speed; the first year, month by month, with sales ramping up, profit, cash, the first profitable month, the lowest cash point and whether the working cash covers it; your fixed costs; and the startup budget. It's an ordinary Excel file with no macros, and it works in Google Sheets, LibreOffice and Numbers.

Where this stops working

The plan uses one butter price and one share left at close. The kitchen uses a different one every week: butter moves, a humid day ruins a lamination, and how many croissants went unsold on Tuesday is a guess by Friday.

How TaroStack does it

TaroStack makes each pastry a recipe, so its true cost follows the price of butter, flour and chocolate.

Pastrys as recipes. Each pastry is a recipe by weight, so its cost moves when the supplier's price does.

Counts with no signal. The cooler and dry storage can be counted on a phone with no signal, and the reorder list shows what runs out first in days of cover.

Waste with a reason. Pastry left at close is recorded as waste with a reason, reported by item.

The job Notebook In TaroStack
What a pastry costs this month Worked out once True cost from the recipe
What to order before the weekend A guess The reorder list
What was thrown out Not recorded Waste by reason and item

Recipes, counts and the reorder list are on every plan, from $49 a month. The first 30 days are free, with no credit card. If you'd like a hand setting up, ask, and we'll do it with you.

Questions people also ask

How much does it cost to start a pastry shop?

The example budgets $199,400, including $45,000 of working cash; the build-out is the biggest item.

Is a pastry shop profitable?

It can be: the example makes about $2,700 a month at full speed before the owner's pay, after a first year that ends behind.

How much does a croissant cost to make?

In the example, about 67 cents in butter, flour, the bag and the card fee, before the hours of lamination.

What is the biggest cost in a pastry shop?

Pastry chefs' wages, in the example $16,500 of $23,300 in fixed costs each month.

We use AI to help with the research for these articles. Every one is read, checked against its sources and edited by Koa before it's published. Spot a mistake? Tell us and we'll fix it and say so. How we write these.

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